General Election Update

The General Election campaign continued this week with several of the parties officially releasing their manifestos. Therefore, we have analysed some polling data to give a poll of polls, which shows a weighted average of polls carried out by 11 polling organisations. Graph 1 below shows the results:

Graph 1: Weighted Average of 11 UK Polls Displaying Voter Intention

Source: BMG, Com Res Delta Poll, Ipsos Mori, Kantar, Opinium, ORB, PanelBase, Survation and YouGov, as at 19 November 2019

The Conservatives have maintained their significant lead ahead of the chasing pack and are yet to release their manifesto. Whether the manifesto pledges released by the other parties will change the current dynamics remains to be seen, but manifesto launches can buttress or undermine an election campaign.

Indeed, one of the reasons cited for Theresa May’s loss of the Conservative majority in 2017 was an ill-conceived and poorly launched manifesto, which saw the Conservatives’ 17% polling lead gradually erode as the 2017 campaign entered its latter stages. Something Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be eager to avoid ahead of the publishing of the Conservative manifesto.

 

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